covid-19 Archives - Servant Financial

Leaping Out of Credit Card Debt

Written February 29, 2024February 29, 2024 by Ailie Carlene Elmore , John Heneghan

Every four years, Americans are given the rare gift of time. February 29^th only appears on the calendars every 1,460 days marking the well-known holiday of Leap Day. This extra day brings about traditions across the world such as women proposing to men and is commonly called “Bachelor’s Day” or “Ladies Privilege.” In other countries, Leap Year is known as an unlucky year for agriculture and particularly sheep. There is an old rhyme that says, “Leap Year was never a good sheep year.” So don’t be a sheep this Leap Year, do your own thinking, particularly on important matters.

What does Leap Year mean for Americans? For credit card holders, it means an additional day to tackle the mounting $1.129 trillion debt Americans currently owe. Americans now have more credit card debt than ever before, and the COVID-19 pandemic only accelerated its “leap” higher. Credit card holders with unpaid balances hold an average of $6,864 with the highest average debt levels being owed by East Coast residents. The debt balances on these credit cards aren’t getting cheaper to carry either given rising interest rates. The average Annual Percentage Rate (APR) on credit cards is 21.47% making it even more difficult for consumers who have found themselves in the debt hole to “leap” their way out of it.

Source: Lending Tree

How did the average Americans find themselves in this dilemma? Higher prices at the gas pump and grocery store together with the increasing costs of housing have significantly contributed to the current crisis. Borrowers between the ages of 30 to 39 are particularly feeling the pain of rising interest rates as this age bracket often is also dealing with student loan debt repayments. Even though the U.S. economy continues its expansion, debtholders may be reaching a breaking point and be forced to scale back consumption. Consumer expenditures represent approximately 70% of U.S. economic activity. The post-pandemic inflation levels were believed to be largely attributable to temporary supply chain shocks that would resolve themselves over time and prompted a slow response by the Federal Reserve. Credit card holders felt acute pain when a tardy Federal Reserve instituted an aggressive rate-hiking campaign to tame inflation. Some claim that debtholders are at fault for overspending and while that may be true, they are just taking a profligate spending lesson out of the Federal Government’s budget playbook. The current National Debt is hovering around $34 Trillion which comes out to an average of $102,279 per each American. Interestingly enough, the slope of the National Debt graph shows a very similar shape to the above graph featuring individuals’ credit card debt.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Even though credit card debt levels continue to rise, delinquency rates remain relatively low with only 3.1% of Americans with a balance that is more than 30 days delinquent. What do high debt levels and low delinquency levels mean? Huge profits for credit card companies. Currently, there are four major credit card networks in the United States: Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover. Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have experienced rising earnings over the past several years as people swipe cards quicker and pay later. Not only are these companies leaping into financial success from higher individual card debt but also higher transaction fees. In 2022, credit card companies charged consumers an all-time high in interest and transaction fees of $130 billion.

These oligopolies are only projected to get stronger and more concentrated as Capital One announced this month their plans to buy Discover Financial Services for a whopping $35 billion. Discover shareholders would receive 1.0192 Capital One shares for each Discover share under the terms of the proposed deal. Capital One desires Discovers’ independent card network to go with its Capital One Visa operating on the shared Visa credit card network. As more consumers swipe plastic cards rather than pay with cash, financial services are taking notice of the “leap” in prospects for the credit card sector. Some worry the rising credit card debt is signaling a weakening economy, JPMorgan CFO, Jeremy Barnum, reported during their earnings call that consumers are adjusting to the end of government stimulus checks and government-mandated pause on student loan repayments. Other bank executives point to a strong labor market signaling that consumers can afford the high credit card balances.

Servant Client Portfolio Positioning

Here is our Leap Year summary of Servant client portfolio composition compared to traditional benchmarks. A traditional 60/40 portfolio would hold 60% equities and 40% fixed-income securities and cash for a client with moderate risk tolerance.

1. Underweight equities

2. Overweight non-U.S. equities vs. U.S. equities

3. Overweight precious metals, gold miners, and digital assets/bitcoin

4. Underweight fixed income duration

U.S. equity valuations are near extremes. For example, Hussman Fund’s February 26, 2024 newsletter “Speculative Euphoria and the Fear of Missing Out” states that “the valuation measure we find best-correlated with 10-12 year S&P 500 returns in market cycles across history is the ratio of nonfinancial capitalization to corporate gross value-added, including estimated foreign revenues (MarketCap/GVA). Presently, this measure is higher than at any point before June 2021, with the exception of three weeks surrounding the 1929 peak.”

Likewise, market breadth is very, very narrow with the performance of the so-called “Magnificent 7” (U.S. tech behemoths Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GGOGL), Facebook/Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA)) diverging with NVDA soaring and TSLA tanking.

In our opinion, the aggregate stock market is priced for perfection and assumes inflation will sheepishly return to Fed’s targeted rate of 2% and a soft economic landing where a broad recession is avoided. We see the potential for volatility in future economic data. If such volatility were to occur, it could quickly “leap” into the stock market For example, market projections for core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, remain closer to 4% than the Fed’s targeted 2%. Further, recent economic data (employment and layoff announcements and retail sales) are consistent with a slowing economy.

We think the recent move in Bitcoin may be an economic tell. Bitcoin has leaped from below $52k at the beginning of this week to breach $61k on the day of this writing on February 28^th. You may recall that Servant Financial initiated small allocations to client portfolios in 2020 of generally 1% to 2% based on the deep research that we conducted which showed that adding a small bitcoin allocation would historically benefit globally diversified portfolios by lowering risk while providing the potential for higher returns. Market history has been rhyming lately.

John Heneghan recently received his Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets – Financial Advisor Track from the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals so Servant Financial is prepared to serve your financial planning and investment needs regarding digital assets and bitcoin.

For more bitcoin-curious readers, we have been beta-testing a couple of more concentrated and volatile portfolios on the bitcoin, anti-fiat themes. The first portfolio is focused on active best ideas in both the real asset and bitcoin/digital asset space. This portfolio holds about 15 positions and has almost a 3-year track record. The second and newer portfolio (10-month history) is much more speculative and holds only 6 positions – Fidelity Bitcoin Trust ETF (FBTC) and five other bitcoin-related businesses. Please reach out if you are interested in learning more.

Leap Day is known to be a lucky day – good luck for some and bad luck for others. As Ray Charles sang, “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have not luck at all.” One thing is sure, consumers cannot rely solely on good luck to leap them out of their debt holes because bad economic luck may be lurking around the corner. If you have found yourself struggling with high levels of credit card debt, we encourage you to check out the National Foundation for Credit Counseling for strategies and tips for your unique situation. Leap Day should not be just another date on the calendar; instead, view it as an opportunity to leap closer to financial freedom from credit card debt.

Where Have All the Good Workers Gone?

Written January 31, 2023January 31, 2023 by Ailie Carlene Elmore , John Heneghan

Reminiscent of the 1984 Bonnie Tyler hit from Footloose, many US employers are crooning for working class heroes. “I need a worker, I’m holding out for a worker ‘til the end of 2023.” The U.S. labor force has been dwindling from food and beverage service to financial analysts since the COVID-19 pandemic began. While some have been quick to blame the shortage on several rounds of government relief money that idled some workers, a combination of factors is influencing this labor change. Millions of people were suddenly unemployed at the start of the pandemic and many industries assumed these people would return to work when normalcy resumed. However, almost 3 years after the start of the pandemic, these “missing” workers may never return to the labor force. This labor shortage could cause a secular shift in American businesses and labor markets.

COVID-19

Government and businesses’ responses to COVID-19 brought about a 50-year high in unemployment, peaking at 14.7% in April 2020. Service workers and business professionals found themselves suddenly without work and wages. The U.S. government came to the rescue, handing out $5 trillion in pandemic stimulus money with a large portion devoted directly to individuals in the form of stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits. When evidence of a growing labor shortage emerged, many people pointed fingers at the U.S. government for providing so much monetary support and disincentivizing workers to return to the job market. However, the story isn’t that simple. Fears of contracting and spreading COVID and the existential risk of mortality created a widespread shift in lifestyle priorities and an increased desire for a better work-life balance. The result of these factors has been the rise of remote labor and gig workforces. A study done by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found 91% of survey participants hoped they could continue to work remotely at least part of the time. Businesses have generally adapted to this desire and been accommodative. However, remote labor isn’t really a possibility for customer-facing service roles or manufacturing jobs for which labor activities are concentrated in a single location.

The U.S. Labor Department reported 10.5 million job openings in November 2022 with the labor participation rate at 62.3%, down from 63.3% in February 2020. Not only do service industries have their “Help Wanted” signs out but so do financial services and professional and business services. While workers are demanding more remote work, these professional industries are demanding people come back to work in their office buildings to collaborate with their colleagues. Workers have been less receptive to this return to the office mandate causing worker turnover rates to reach 57.3% in 2021, up from 45% just two years earlier. Businesses that have been able to accommodate their workforce’s desires for at least partial remote work are generally experiencing lower turnover and avoiding severe labor shortages.

No More Baby Boomers

Economists argue that this labor shortage was always on the demographic table. The labor participation rate has been on a downward trend since 2000 and some argue it is as simple as the laws of supply and demand. One of the largest generations in U.S. history, the Baby Boomer generation, is clocking out with no plans to punch back in. The median age of the Baby Boomer generation (born 1946-1964) turned 66 last year meaning many boomers are taking a refrain from Johnny Paycheck’s 1977 hit song, “Take This Job and Shove It” and checking into retirement. The next generation behind the boomers, Generation X, is about 5 million people short to fill the employment hole the boomers are leaving. The next generation able to take the Boomer’s place is the Millennials; however, it is still going to be several years before they enter the labor force. COVID-19 only intensified Boomers leaving the workforce as older generations were more susceptible to adverse outcomes from the virus. Boomers were also less likely to adapt to changes toward more remote work. This trend may have something to do with the adage of old dogs and new tricks.

Source: Statista

These trends in labor demographics are not likely to be resolved any time soon as the World Bank projects the number of people between the working ages of 15 and 65 is set to decline by 3% over the next decade. “Without sustained immigration or a focus on attracting workers on the sidelines of the labor force, these countries simply won’t have enough workers to fill long-term demand for years to come,” said the chief economist at Indeed. Historically, immigration and globalization have helped bridge the labor gap; however, during the pandemic we saw a reversal of both trends. Policy reform towards immigration will need to happen if the U.S. wants a sufficiently dynamic labor force in the years to come.

Is the End in Sight?

The question begs, how long will this domestic labor shortage last? While a body of evidence suggests this is a systematic change, other economists argue a potential shift into a recession could help lower demand for labor and bring the labor situation towards equilibrium. The shifting landscape of the U.S. economy toward a recession would likely reduce hiring levels as companies are forced to cut back on growth plans. While we may see an uptick in unemployment levels, it is doubtful it will reach the near 10% unemployment levels the Great Recession of 2008 brought. The looming recession and persistent inflation point to a normalization of the labor market in 2023; however, some companies are still going to need to make adjustments to their business models to compensate for the loss in workers.

Companies are beginning to readjust their hiring strategies and their job expectations to accommodate the current labor market conditions. Inflation has made it difficult for companies to keep pay scales in line with the cost-of-living increases. It is going to be increasingly important for companies to be proactive with their employment strategies and stay ahead of the trends in worker lifestyle demands if they want to retain good talent. Companies such as IBM (Ticker: IBM) predicted this shortage long ago and began outsourcing their talent to countries with growing populations such as India. They have been able to capitalize on lower market-based wages in these developing countries and cheaper input supplies.

Meanwhile, the technology sector is busily working on solutions to these labor shortages, like artificial intelligence and machine learning. The most recent market hero in this space is ChatGPT from the venture firm OpenAI. ChatGPT optimizes language models for dialogue. The ChatGPT model has been trained to interact with users in a conversational way. This format makes it possible for ChatGPT to answer follow-up questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests. Several in the Twittersphere claim that ChatGPT has passed portions of the Bar Exam, medical license exam, and MBA operations exam. Further, experts interviewed by UK’s Daily Mail believe ‘AI will take 20% of all jobs within five YEARS’ and explain how bots like ChatGPT will dominate the labor market. According to the article, Microsoft invested $10 billion in ChatGPT and said that the technology will change how people interact with computers.

From our standpoint, the best way for investors to express a purposeful view on the future emergence of artificial intelligence and machine learning is through the leading technology heros, like Microsoft and Apple, who have massive distribution capabilities through their existing software and hardware product suites and business relationships across sectors. We like iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW). This ETF provides exposure to the leading U.S. electronics, computer software and hardware, and IT companies. IYW’s boasts assets under management totalling $7.8 billion and a reasonable expense ratio of 0.39%. IYW has traded down 35% in 2022 and trades at an estimated 2023 price to earnings ratio of 23 times. The following summarizes IYW’s top holdings:

We recommend buying IYW on future weakness and sitting on the sidelines holding out for a hero ‘til the morning light. In other words, wait until the next recession and buy these tech heroes who are strong, fast, and fresh from the fight.

Twelve Themes of Christmas

Written December 22, 2022December 22, 2022 by Ailie Carlene Elmore

Contributions made by: John Heneghan & Michael Zhao

‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the financial house, not an investor was resting, not even a DC louse. 2022 brought investors increased market volatility and a wide array of risks and uncertainties remain, yet some opportunities may lie hidden under the Christmas tree. From inflation worries to geopolitical risks, we have been on a wild sleigh ride this past year. But whether you landed on the naughty or nice list this year depended on your ability to navigate the economic whiteouts caused by the likes of the Federal Reserve, Vladimir Putin, and Sam Bankman-Fried.

Tis’ the Season for Interest Rate Hikes

On the first day of Christmas, Federal Reserve Chairman stuffed my stocking with 7 rapid interest rate hikes. The Fed has been hiking the benchmark Federal Funds Rate at an unprecedented pace to combat high inflation which is causing concern among investors and consumers alike. As the cost of borrowing increases, whether it’s for a mortgage, car loan, or credit card, it impacts the affordability of goods and services for many households. People tend to hunker down on spending and are less likely to take on new debt, which impacts aggregate consumer spending and business investment. Recently, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4.5% in its final policy meeting of the year. This marks the seventh consecutive increase in just nine months to the highest benchmark interest rate in 15 years.

The Federal Reserve has signaled its desire to keep interest rates higher through 2023 with the potential of rate easing, not until 2024. As a result of the Fed interest rate hikes, mortgage rates have reached 20-year highs, interest rates for home equity lines of credit are at 14-year highs, and car loan rates are at 11-year highs. Savers, on the other hand, are seeing the best bank deposit and bond yields since 2008. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 12-year high in September at 3.93% causing foreign investment to flock to U.S. treasuries and spurring strength in the U.S. Dollar. After several years of low-yielding bond investments, investors are busily re-balancing their investment portfolios so they can much more safely jingle their way to their investment objectives.

Source: Statista

Dashing through Inflation

Santa’s pocketbook may be feeling a bit squeezed this gift-giving season as inflation continues to rage at the North Pole, particularly for the basic foodstuffs like milk and cookies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a 7.1% increase year over year during the month of November, down from annual CPI of 7.7% in October and lower than the 7.3% increase forecast by economists. Importantly, the November monthly increase slowed to 0.1% and was driven into positive territory primarily by rising food (0.5%) and housing costs (0.6%). The PCE Prices Index due this Friday is the last consequential data release for the year. Other data this week mostly focuses on the housing market where home sales have slowed down, but actual prices continue to rise. Still rising housing costs are a problem for the Federal Reserve as “shelter” expenses account for the largest share of CPI. Housing cost increases have been slowing down and many economists believe gauges for both home prices and rents will start to show declines in the coming months. The Fed’s owner’s equivalent rent measurement is a notorious lagging factor and when this statistic rolls over it may take a substantial bite out of headline inflation. Supply chain backlogs, rising costs, government spending, labor shortages, and increasing demand have all played a part in elevating inflation to its current levels. As a result, these inflation trends have been the principal driver of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking policy which has economists, investors, and consumers appropriately worried that a Fed-induced recessionary winter storm might be brewing as the Fed overshoots on the hawkish side.

Baby, it’s Looking like a Recession

Current economic pressure really can’t stay, baby, it’s looking like a recession. Recession fears are rising as investors lose confidence in U.S. economic performance in the face of an unprecedentedly rapid and yet unfinished Fed hiking cycle. Despite relatively strong economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 and a still low unemployment rate of 3.7%, the Federal Reserve has lowered its forecast for next year’s U.S. economic growth in light of its rate hikes and expects the unemployment rate to rise by the end of 2023 as well. Some believe that the current widespread concerns about a recession may help us avoid one, as caution leads to less risk-taking and borrowing, potentially cooling the economy enough to reduce inflation and the need for further interest rate hikes. Lagging inflation statistics remain elevated and central banks globally are continuing to raise interest rates to destroy demand and slow economic growth in the coming year. More real-time inflation measures, like the Cleveland Fed’s “Inflation Nowcasting” measure, show inflation moderating. Inflation Nowcasting’s fourth quarter run-rate CPI is at 3.5% and Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 4.7% suggesting the Fed is “fighting the last war” rather than anticipating what will happen next.

The U.S. Dollar All the Way

Santa’s reindeer are taking a new launch angle this year along with the U.S. dollar by soaring to new heights in 2022. The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major global currencies, had been on the rise throughout 2022 but started to taper off in late November and December. Other central banks have joined the competitive rate-hiking game and compressed interest rate differentials. The strong dollar is beneficial for American consumers who purchase foreign goods, as it makes them cheaper in U.S. dollar terms. However, it can be an earnings headwind for American businesses that export goods or have multinational business operations such as McDonald’s and Apple. McDonald’s reported that its global revenue fell 3% this past summer due to the strong dollar as the rising costs of Big Macs have foreign consumers turning to other options. The strong dollar is also a reflection of the relative strength of the U.S. economy compared to other advanced economies, such as those in Europe (Euro) and Japan (Yen). Foreign investors flocking to higher and arguably lower-risk U.S. treasury yields only bolsters the dollar further.

U.S. Dollar Index; Source: Google Finance

Eat, Drink, & Spend like Consumers

U.S. consumers found themselves on the nice list in this year of profligate government spending. The US government gave consumers several nice stimulus checks due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consumers used these relief funds to pay for day-to-day necessities, others have been able to enjoy new furniture, electronics, and vacations that have them saying “Mele Kalikimaka”. Economists predict this holiday season may be the last fling of spending toward luxury brands and exotic travel. The current level of consumer spending is projected to dwindle towards the end of next year as recessionary fears manifest and unemployment levels grow as the Fed’s aggressive hiking policy takes hold.

It’s Beginning to Look a lot like a Labor Shortage

Santa may be having a bit of trouble finding enough elves to manufacture toys in his workshop this year. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about many changes to people’s lifestyles, and many re-evaluated their lifestyles as they were challenged with their mortality. Across the nation businesses in every sector are feeling the pressure to find enough skilled labor to meet the growing consumer demand for goods and services. In 2021, 47 million workers quit their jobs in what is referred to as the “Great Resignation.” The industries hurting the most are food services, manufacturing, & hospitality. Workers have signaled a desire for better company culture, work-life balance, and compensation. Some believe the labor shortage will work itself out if a recession were to occur. However, others argue that this is just the beginning of secular labor shortages as declining birth rates in the U.S. and other developed nations have economists worried that we are not restocking the world’s workforce fast enough. Maybe Santa will be nice enough to supply us with some of his highly productive elves to bridge this gap until intelligent robotics develop further.

Source: US Chamber of Commerce

How Vladimir Putin Stole Ukraine

At the top of most of the world’s Christmas wish list is for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to be resolved. Not only did the invasion of Ukraine in February bring about economic disruption but it has brought devastation to the Ukrainian and Russian people. It is estimated that close to 7,000 civilians in Ukraine have lost their lives in the conflict. The power-hungry, Russian Grinch Putin, is committed to overtaking Ukraine for strategic access to important trade routes and resources. Currently, Russia is occupying several major port areas along the Black Sea. The Ukrainian defense has been putting up a strong fight with the help of $32 billion and growing of financial support from U.S. taxpayers. Several trade restrictions and sanctions have been put into place to hurt Russia financially. However, since Russia is the global largest energy supplier of natural gas and oil, these sanctions are only putting more extreme pressure on energy prices worldwide. Ukraine is also a large exporter of agricultural products, and the conflict has caused several production and logistics issues for Ukrainian farmers. Commodity prices have climbed as a result, particularly for wheat. While the conflict today looks unresolvable, maybe Grinch Putin’s heart will grow three sizes and he’ll decide to shower Who-ville with presents instead of artillery. “Fahoo fores dahoo dores!”

Photo Source: Behance

Source: Wikipedia

Making Energy Bills Bright

As the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on, energy bills for people around the world continue to climb. Oil and natural gas prices have soared in 2022 with Europe being hit hardest by the jump given its deep dependence on Russian natural gas. In August, gas futures hit a record high of 350 euros creating immense pressure for European nations to set price limits on natural gas. Household electricity prices from natural gas-fired plants have increased in Europe by 67% in just one year, stopping some Europeans from lighting their Christmas trees this year. The European energy ministers imposed an electricity price cap this week to help lessen the burden on consumers. The United States has also felt the brunt of high energy prices as power prices rose almost 16%, the highest increase in 41 years. Consumers also felt the pressure at the gas pump as the average price of a gallon of gas rose to $4.96. Maybe in 2023, we can be like Santa and his reindeer-powered business model by running more of our economy on renewable energy.

Cryptocurrencies Roasting on an Open Fire

Cryptocurrencies roasting on an open fire, Sam Bankman-Fried nipping at your confidence. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges and hedge funds, FTX, filed for bankruptcy this November after information was released about its risky holdings and clandestine relationship with its affiliated hedge fund Alameda Research spooked many of its exchange customers. Several exchange customers sought to withdraw their crypto holdings from the FTX exchange, prompting the bankruptcy filing of the company. It turns out FTX was another Ponzi scheme or con game with apparently none of FTX’s well-healed venture capital investors doing any due diligence or demanding a role in corporate governance. The price of Bitcoin has fallen 65% in the past year with investors losing confidence in an asset class imputatively regulated by the SEC and Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC has defined bitcoin as a commodity, but a turf war has continued with SEC creating regulatory uncertainty and ample opportunities for miscreants. FTX was a Bermuda-based firm regulated by the Securities Commission of the Bahamas. The SEC could have required crypto exchange registration and reporting and U.S. domestic incorporation. Former FTX CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, has agreed to extradition and will now be answering to the Justice Department and SEC for violations of wire fraud, money laundering, securities fraud, commodities fraud, and conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws. The once shiny wrapped package that was FTX Digital Markets now looks like a lump of coal. Expect the naming rights for FTX Arena, home of the Miami Heat, to become available soon and most of FTX’s liberal political contributions to be returned to the bankruptcy court. Bernie Madoff will look like a petty thief compared to SBF.

Dreaming of Student Loan Forgiveness

About 43 million Americans received a nice Christmas present from President Biden this year, with forgiveness for part of their $1.6 trillion student loan debt. President Biden announced the plan earlier this year sparking both joy for recipients and scrutiny from every other U.S. citizen. The plan would eliminate $10,000 in federal loans for individual borrowers making less than $125,000 per year or couples earning less than $250,000 annually. Pell Grant recipients, which account for 60% of current student debt holders, could receive upwards of $20,000 in forgiveness. However, this largesse begs the question of where the money for this forgiveness will come from as the US government already is $31 trillion in debt. Biden’s Executive Order faces many legal challenges in Congress and the Supreme Court to overcome and move this profligate effort forward.

All I Want for Christmas is Farmland

The bright star on top of the investment tree this year is an asset class that has been at the top of many institutional investors’ Christmas wish lists all year, U.S. farmland. Farmland hasn’t always been seen as an accessible investment option. However, farmland funds such as Promised Land Opportunity Zone Fund and others have been formed to allow investors access to in this durable, inflation-beneficiary asset class. Iowa State University recently reported farmland values in Iowa were up 17% in 2022 which comes on top of a 29% increase in 2021. Similar stories have been reported throughout the Midwest as strong commodity prices fuel farm incomes and transacted land values. The COVID-19 pandemic had people re-evaluating what is important to our world with basic human needs, like food, at the top of the list. While consumer preferences and social trends may change, people will still need to eat, making farmland one of the most durable asset classes through time. This has many investors saying “All I Want for Christmas is Farmland.”

We Wish You a Diversified Portfolio

At Servant Financial, our goal is to help you navigate these turbulent times and help you make the best decisions for your investment portfolio. We understand increased market volatility may be causing investor unease, but it is times like these that the basic investment principle of portfolio diversification proves its mettle. With inflation still a concern and US treasuries on the rise, we are paying close attention to iShares 0–5-year TIPS Bond ETF, STIP. With low management fees (.03%) and a 30-day SEC yield of 5.84%, its 2.5-year duration could be an ideal addition to a blended debt and equity portfolio. The principal value of TIPS (upon which the stated interest is paid) is adjusted semiannually as inflation rises, as measured by CPI. STIP holds a variety of U.S. treasuries with maturities of less than 5 years protecting you against rising interest rates and inflation. STIP is a core holding of Servant’s risk-based client portfolios.

Happy Holiday’s from your friends at Servant Financial and we wish you a globally diversified portfolio.

Instead of holiday cards or gifts, Servant Financial will be making an annual contribution on behalf of clients and friends to Mercy Home for Boys & Girls.

May this holiday season be a time of rich blessings for you and your family.

Source: Pinterest

Through the Looking Glass – Investment Themes to Watch in 2022

Written January 25, 2022 by Ailie Carlene Elmore

The world has been riding the COVID-19 rollercoaster for the past two years. Similar to Alice’s adventures in Through the Looking Glass, the twists and turns of the pandemic have been reflected in our everyday life and the investment world. Financial markets have experienced extreme highs and lows as the market digested economic data and expectations about COVID-19 cases and incoming variants. Even the map of S&P 500 levels mimics a roller coaster you might see at your favorite theme park. Despite the economic and social volatility over the past two years, the S&P 500 returned more than 26% in 2021.

Graph of S&P 500 levels January 2020 – December 2021

So where will Alice go next in the looking glass? Specifically, what should investors be reflecting on as we look towards 2022? With this in mind, we have identified a few opportunities as well as some things to watch in the investing world in the upcoming year. More details will be provided on these topics in the upcoming months however investors should be aware of these opportunities and market risks as we start the year.

Inflation

One of the greatest market concerns early on in 2022 is rising inflation levels. From food in the grocery stores to gas at the station, the price of everything is going up. The U.S. Labor Department recently reported that consumer prices rose 7% in December 2021 from the price level in December 2020. This comes after November 2021 consumer prices rose 6.8%. A Wall Street Journal survey showed that respondents believe inflation levels will come down gradually in 2022 as a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is expected in early 2022 in response to inflation well above its 2% target and a low unemployment rate of 3.9%. Survey respondents also are projecting economic growth to slow in 2022 to a 3.3% increase in GDP which is significantly lower than their October expectations of 4.2%. As a result of these economic drivers, investors are flocking to real assets such as farmland, commodities, and precious metals. Commodities, including energy, and precious metals are the top-performing sectors so far in 2022. Nationally, farmland experienced a 7% increase in values in 2021, and agricultural commodities and farmland are projected to continue rising in 2022. If you are interested in investing in farmland coupled with tax benefits, learn more on Promised Land’s website.

Wall Street Journal Survey Report

The Next Gold Rush

The rise in inflation expectations also has some investors seeking protection in physical assets such as Gold. Gold is another asset that has been known to offer investors inflation hedging potential however the volatility in the COVID-19 pandemic caused great volatility in the gold market in 2022. Based on our Q4 data, gold was down close to 4% year to date in 2021 but was up 5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, demonstrating increased interest in the asset class with rising inflation concerns. Some investors think gold will start to shine in 2022 as the market digests negative real yields in the face of potential runaway inflation numbers. Analysts from Australian Bank, ANZ, expect gold prices to rally in the first half of 2022 but will come back down later in the year after the expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, another historical catalyst for gold, geopolitical risks, are on the rise in Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan and China, and domestically due to COVID-19 policies. While the jury is still out on whether the next gold rush will emerge, it is an investment theme we are keeping our eye on going into 2022.

Image from the Gold Rush of 1849. Will we see history repeating itself in 2022?

Cryptocurrency

While the economic results of the COVID-19 pandemic have some investors looking backward to seek inflation protection, others are wondering if a cryptocurrency investment has a portfolio role in the investing looking glass. Crypto has had a varied history and is known to be one of the most volatile assets. However, its use as an alternative store of value and currency (“digital gold”) has been attractive for some investors seeking shelter from potential Federal Reserve money printing and other monetary policies supportive of risk assets. The cryptocurrency market has started 2022 on poor footing with Bitcoin falling more than 7% on January 21^st. This comes after global concerns from emerging regulations on cryptocurrencies in Russia, one of the largest crypto-mining markets. Will this rocky start send Bitcoin tumbling down into a digital mineshaft? Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential, citing that it thinks the price could double in the next five years, stealing some of gold’s luster in the process. The crypto story will continue to unfold in 2022 and we will be keeping watch with “laser eyes.”

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing

Every day, more and more investors want their investments to not only grow in profitability but also spark positive change in the world around them. The demand for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing grew substantially in 2020 with a record 140% increase in investment funds going towards ESG investments. In 2021, investor demand grew further with companies across the planet trying to meet investor preferences through sustainable business practices and policy actions to reduce their carbon footprint. Northern Trust Corporation’s ESG index fund (Ticker: ESG) which invests in large-cap companies promoting sustainability and social governance is up more than 14% from January 2021 to January 2022, with its outlook looking strong. Its $186 million assets under management include a diverse mix of industries such as technology, health care, and renewable energy. As young millennial investors enter the stock market, many believe impact investing will be at the forefront of their minds and their pocketbooks. ESG investing is paving the way for new roads in the market such as carbon investing, green bonds, and clean energy development. We plan to discuss this topic further in the coming months and provide opportunities to put your dollars to work for a more sustainable planet.

Grow your wallet and your planet with ESG Investing

The Looking Glass

“It’s a great huge game of chess that’s being played – all over the world- if this is the world at all you know” – Lewis Carroll in Through the Looking Glass. These words of Carroll from more than 150 years ago still hold in life, especially in the geopolitical and investing realms. From inflation and interest rate concerns to safe-haven capital flows to gold and ethically directed demand for ESG investments, investors must actively survey the chessboard and potentially modify the strategy to win the game. 2022 is sure to challenge us tactically with blockades, decoying, and double attacks. Servant Financial will use a stable, yet flexible looking glass by investing your capital with integrity, compassion, and experience. Follow us as we reflect on these and other topics in the coming year.