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Breaking Through Bottlenecks

Over the past twelve months, our research has remained focused on a central theme: identifying structural bottlenecks across the global economy and investing in the technological and physical innovations poised to break through or bypass them.   We are witnessing a rapidly accelerating paradigm shift. Legacy systems — in energy distribution, financial settlement, and industrial supply chains — are increasingly hitting physical and operational limits. In this environment, a clear understanding of the macro trends reshaping our world is essential.  Positioning investment portfolios well for the evolution of these trends requires bridging the physical constraints of the material world with the programmable efficiency of the digital age.

We believe this trend convergence rests on five core pillars:

Physical Foundations

The transition to next-generation technologies — renewable energy infrastructure (particularly solar as we’ve highlighted in previous articles), data centers, and AI compute — demands an unprecedented volume of physical, raw materials and input. Over the past year, we have repeatedly highlighted growing supply-demand imbalances in critical minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium.  Equally important are the second-order effects. The global reagent squeeze, particularly sulfuric acid — a non-substitutable chemical required to process nearly all critical minerals — illustrates how concentrated and vulnerable certain supply chains remain. By identifying these chokepoints, investors can position capital in specialized manufacturers and infrastructure providers that serve as the essential “picks and shovels” for the broader critical minerals and automation boom. This approach reduces direct commodity volatility while capturing the structural opportunity.

Another stark example of physical vulnerability is the global agricultural supply chain. The 2026 conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a major disruption in the fertilizer market.  The Gulf Region accounts for 46% of global urea trade and at least 20% of seaborne fertilizer exports. Fertilizer production is also heavily dependent on liquefied natural gas. With shipping routes blocked during critical planting seasons, natural gas, fuel, and granular urea prices spiked dramatically. Farmers who had not secured inputs in advance faced sharply higher costs or reduced yields.  This episode underscores a key truth: global food security is inextricably linked to secure energy markets and reliable transit corridors. From an investment perspective, it reinforces the need to support domestic, vertically integrated agricultural producers and food supply chains that are insulated from distant geopolitical risks. We expect national champions in food security to emerge in the years ahead.

Monetary Anchors & AI Hardware

Even as the economy digitizes, the role of physical stores of value has intensified. Persistent inflation, rising sovereign debt, and geopolitical instability — including the recent disruptions in the Middle East — continue to drive demand for gold and silver.  A powerful new tailwind is emerging: precious metals are transitioning from pure monetary hedges into critical components of the AI hardware stack.

  • Silver possesses the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, making it indispensable for thermal interface materials, cooling systems, and high-conductivity interconnections in data centers and advanced GPUs.
  • Gold offers unmatched corrosion resistance and conductivity, essential for high-reliability wiring and plating in memory chips and AI servers.

As AI infrastructure scales, baseline industrial demand for both metals is rising structurally. Investors now gain a dual benefit from precious metals exposure: protection against monetary risk and direct participation in the buildout of both digital AI (cloud-based Large Language Models (LLMs)) and physical AI (robotics and autonomous systems).

Digital Base Layers

If gold is the analog anchor for savings, Bitcoin has established itself as the leading digital savings device and store of value. The era of skepticism that kept many traditional investors on the sidelines is ending.  Professional wealth managers who once restricted access — notably Vanguard and Merrill Lynch — have reversed course. In December 2025, Vanguard began allowing trading of third-party bitcoin and crypto ETFs on its platform. In January 2026, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch expanded access, enabling its financial advisors to proactively recommend specific spot Bitcoin ETFs with suggested portfolio allocations between 1% to 4% as suitable for clients.

Bitcoin has matured into a recognized institutional asset class. Operating on a decentralized, immutable, globally accessible ledger, it offers mathematically enforced scarcity and protection from discretionary monetary policy. With accelerating institutional adoption and anticipated regulatory clarity (including potential passage of the CLARITY Act this summer), Bitcoin is solidifying its position as a foundational layer of the future financial stack and a pristine collateral asset for the digital age.

Frictionless Settlement

While Bitcoin serves as the digital store of value, stablecoins are transforming the day-to-day transaction and settlement layer of global finance.  Traditional cross-border payments rely on slow correspondent banking, paper records, and high costs. Dollar-pegged stablecoins solve these frictions by bringing fiat currency onto blockchain rails, enabling near-instantaneous, borderless settlement.  Supported by landmark legislation such as the GENIUS Act and the anticipated CLARITY Act, stablecoins are not competing with the U.S. dollar — they are extending the dollar’s dominance into the digital realm. Anyone with an internet connection can now access dollar-denominated value and transact globally, 24/7, bypassing limiting factors imposed by legacy systems.

Capital Efficiency

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is the logical extension of moving money on-chain by also bringing the assets that are purchased with money on-chain. Tokenization of equities, bonds, private credit, real estate, and other traditional assets promises to unlock the next wave of capital efficiency.  Legacy markets suffer from multi-day settlement lags, fragmented liquidity, and high administrative overheads.

Tokenization delivers:

  • Instantaneous settlement and reduced counterparty risk
  • Automated compliance and distributions via smart contracts
  • Greater transparency and direct ownership
  • Access to previously illiquid assets for a global investor base

As platforms secure necessary regulatory approvals as transfer agents and broker-dealers, the tokenization of RWAs will merge the reliability of traditional assets with the speed and programmability of blockchain technology.

Bottom Line for Servant Financial Clients

Understanding these macro trends is only the beginning. Translating them into actionable portfolio themes for clients is what really matters in the long run.  We continue to position client portfolios with targeted exposure across the foregoing five pillars:

More recently, we took toehold positions only within our most risk tolerant client portfolios to Black Diamond Group Limited (BDIMF) as a play on near site or on-site housing solutions for large, skilled labor forces needed for data center, industrial production, refining, and manufacturing facilities construction, and the enabling energy infrastructure to power these facilities, and to Ecovyst, Inc. (NYSE: ECVT), a focused play on sulfuric acid and mining reagents.

  • Capital Efficiency: Securitize, Inc. through its pending Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) listing as Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc. (CEPT) has been identified as the premier, U.S. listed platform for the emerging tokenization of RWAs. We have not yet instituted a CEPT position in any client portfolios.

Several entrepreneurs have created vast economic value across America’s almost 250-year history by identifying and resolving the limiting factors that prevent the evolution from the current process state to a more optimal system design.  By anchoring portfolios at the intersection of physical scarcity and digital innovation, we believe we have positioned client portfolios well to navigate and capitalize on the inherent productivity gains that can be achieved from eliminating systemic bottlenecks and strategic dependencies.

 

“Forge Ahead” In Review

Beginning in April 2025 we began a series of monthly newsletters that permitted readers to follow along with our deep investment thesis work on Together We Build: Reindustrialization of America. The outcome of that research ultimately was a sleeve of physical and productive resource companies we dubbed “Forge Ahead” and added to Servant Client models.  We explicitly avoided significant direct Chinese resource and refining exposure that is available with the VanEck Rare Earth ETF (REMX) given our expectation of a more adversarial relationship between the two trading partners. This newsletter will summarize performance of the Forge Ahead sleeve as well as highlight policy and news updates that we believe further reinforce our thesis.

Forge Ahead Performance vs Managed Proxy ETFs: (6 months)

Below is the trailing 6-month performance of our Forge Ahead sleeve compared against managed ETFs as proxy. Forge Ahead is not inclusive of impact of dividends ~2.5%.

This performance summary is solely presented for illustrative purposes.  It assumes that all the Forge Ahead sleeve components were purchased on the dates and prices specified at their targeted weightings.  Actual client account performance holdings and performance metrics will invariably differ from this illustration due to position sizing, timing and frequency of rebalancing, and other factors.

Overall, lithium companies (Albemarle and SQM) drove Forge Ahead’s performance for the last 6 months. The REMX ETF presented below was weighted much more heavily to lithium producing companies (Albemarle, SQM, Pilbara, Ganfeng, Liontown, Lithium Americas) at 40-45%. Also noteworthy is the diversification in Forge Ahead across differentiated productive assets, such as steel, aluminum, copper, tooling companies (Nano and Proto Labs) and coking coal company (Suncoke), not included in the REMX ETF. Although portfolio composition has had a negative impact on the comparative return over the first 6-month measurement period, we believe Forge Ahead’s broader diversification and its limitations on direct China exposure will produce more attractive risk-adjusted returns over the longer term.  REMX’s direct exposure to Chinese companies is estimated at 25% to 30%.

Nevertheless, the Forge Ahead thesis has outperformed the S&P 500 which provided ~10% price return over the same period.

Re-enforcement of Thesis:

Geopolitical Strategists at The Land Investment Expo Conference

On January 13, 2026, Servant Financial attended the Land Investment Expo where two noteworthy geopolitical strategists spoke, Peter Zeihan and Marco Papic. Both speakers had similar overall messages: there are global tensions that are shifting the world into China-centric vs USA/NAFTA-centric worlds or a multipolar world, and areas that they think will thrive under these conditions are physical and productive assets. Peter pointed to materials processing, non-ferrous metals, and electrical steel, while Marco touted land, copper, nickel and natural gas. Marco thought that land as a store of value would catch up to gold. Today, you need only 1.1 ounces of gold at $5,045 per ounce to buy the average US cropland acre according to the USDA.  Historically this purchase required 3.7 ounces on average.  Likewise, you need only 1.9 ounces of gold to buy the average prime Illinois cropland acre.  Historically this same purchase required 6.7 ounces.

Presidential Proclamations

Following is a Presidential proclamation made on January 14, 2026, which highlights the importance of processed critical minerals to the national security of the United States and the overreliance on foreign sources. The administration is aggressively working on a plan for resolution of these dependencies.

Adjusting Imports of Processed Critical Minerals and Their Derivative Products into the United States – The White House

SECURE Minerals Act

The Securing Essential and Critical U.S. Resources and Elements (SECURE) Minerals Act is a proposed Congressional solution to the overreliance on foreign processing of critical minerals. The proposed legislation seeks to establish a $2.5 billion strategic reserve like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) of critical minerals overseen by a board of governors similar to the Federal Reserve.

US lawmakers introduce bill to create $2.5 billion critical-minerals stockpile | Reuters

The United States isn’t the only country preparing for this multipolar world. Europe has responded with ReSourceEU, which budgets spending of 3 billion euro to combat Chinese dominance in critical mineral processing.

EU to curb exports of recyclable battery, rare earth waste to cut China reliance | Reuters

Our Next Steps:

Our research is ongoing to identify key chokeholds in strategic resources and capabilities. We are presently researching downstream refining and processing of critical minerals to identify strategic dependencies and listed company solutions to potentially add to our Forge Ahead sleeve. Mining companies within Forge Ahead are generally vertically integrated and therefore already picks up elements of refining in the supply chain. But we think there may be other more tactical ways to add exposure to this important step. We are also evaluating mineral resource opportunities in Greenland to determine if they are a suitable fit within our investment thesis.

Critical Materials in Focus – Cobalt, Graphite, and Aluminum

Above Image: Lithium-ion Battery Minerals: Cobalt, Nickel, Manganese, Graphite, and Lithium

In our last edition, Strategic Materials in Focus: Rare Earths and Lithium, we explored the first category of materials important to America’s industrial resurgence. Once again, a reminder below that we categorized raw materials into three investment-relevant groups:

  1. Strategic MaterialsRare Earth Elements (REEs), Semiconductors, and Lithium
    Vital for national defense and advanced technologies, yet heavily reliant on foreign supply chains.
  2. Critical MaterialsCobalt, Graphite, and Aluminum
    Essential for energy storage and transportation, with vulnerable domestic sourcing.
  3. Essential MaterialsSteel, Copper, and Cement
    The foundational components of industrial infrastructure.

Spotlight on Critical Materials: Cobalt, Graphite and Aluminum

Research suggests global cobalt demand is led by batteries and superalloys (~43% and 25% in 2024, respectively), used in automotive, turbine engines and electronics, with a projected growth rate of ~4% CAGR by 2030. For example, cobalt is a component in Lithium-ion batteries, which contain ~10-20% of cobalt and are widely used in Electric Vehicles. An important note is that cobalt is a byproduct of copper mining. In high cobalt deposits, copper yields cobalt at a paltry ratio of .02-.05 metric tons to 1 metric ton of copper mined. The global supply of copper is dominated by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), producing ~70%. Importantly, 65% of cobalt refining is done in China. Given the copper byproduct dependency, very few pure-play cobalt producers exist. Therefore, we concluded the best approach to obtain cobalt exposure is through direct investments in copper miners.

Global graphite demand is also led by batteries ~40%. Lithium-ion batteries for Electric Vehicles require 40-60kg of graphite, for which market growth supports projected graphite use for batteries of 78% by 2035. CAGR for graphite use in the United States is ~7% through 2033. China owns 60% of global graphite mine production and 97% of graphite refining.

Global aluminum demand is led by transportation and packaging (~40% and 20% in 2024, respectively) used in automotive, aerospace, and beverage cans. The US Aluminum market is projected to reach CAGR of ~4.6% through 2030. The US imports most of its Aluminum from Canadian smelters. Canada imports its raw aluminum from Guinea, Australia and Brazil for refining/smelting.

As with strategic raw materials before, China dominance poses significant strategic risk, particularly as it relates to graphite suggesting that the U.S. may benefit from the vertical integration of domestic supply chains for critical minerals.

Four companies in the graphite and aluminum space stand out based upon our research:

Syrah Resources (Ticker: SYAAF)

  • Location: HQ in Melbourne, Australia; operations in Mozambique (Balama) and U.S. (Vidalia, LA)
  • Focus: Natural graphite mining and active anode material (AAM) production for batteries
  • Use Case: EV and grid storage lithium-ion batteries (supplying OEMs like Tesla, Ford, Samsung)
  • Strategic Edge: Only fully vertically integrated graphite-to-anode producer outside of China
  • Website

Alcoa Corporation (Ticker: AA)

  • Location: S. HQ in Pittsburgh with integrated global operations (Canada, Australia, Spain)
  • Focus: Bauxite extraction, aluminum smelting, and fabrication
  • Use Case: Automotive, aerospace, packaging markets with half its smelting powered by low-carbon hydro-electricity
  • Strategic Edge: Vertically integrated, low-carbon production, tariff responsiveness, and joint ventures in Europe (e.g., Spain)
  • Website

Kaiser Aluminum (Ticker: KALU)

  • Location: HQ in Franklin, Tennessee; North American fabrication plants (13 sites across the U.S.)
  • Focus: Rolled, plate, sheet, can-sheet, extruded, and forged aluminum products
  • Use Case: S. aerospace, automotive and packaging industries
  • Strategic Edge: Pure-play downstream fabricator benefiting from reshoring and tariff protections, with stable operating margins
  • Website

Rio Tinto (Ticker: RIO)

  • Location: Dual HQ in London and Melbourne; operates globally (~35 countries)
  • Focus: Mining & processing—including iron ore, copper, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, lithium, and borates
  • Use Case: Broad metals demand—steelmaking, energy transition (copper, lithium), refined aluminum
  • Strategic Edge: Massive scale, diversified portfolio, expanding into lithium via Arcadium acquisition
  • Website

Looking Ahead

Our research suggests the U.S. government, under President Trump as the 47th President, has intensified efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains. Likely actions include executive orders, use of the Defense Production Act, and deep-sea mining initiatives to reduce reliance on foreign sources, especially China. Here are details on few measures under consideration:

Our intensive work to develop an internal Strategic Materials Fund (basket of securities) to align with these perceived long-term structural trends of the U.S. strategic sourcing of raw materials is ongoing.  Our next newsletter will cover remaining essential materials – steel, copper and cement. Followed by a disclosure of the composition our Strategic Materials Fund. Expect to possibly see portfolio transaction activity as we begin to execute on this theme ahead of further newsletter walkthroughs.

 

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