Email us at info@servantfinancial.com to talk to a financial advisor today!

Email us at info@servantfinancial.com

Breaking Through Bottlenecks

Over the past twelve months, our research has remained focused on a central theme: identifying structural bottlenecks across the global economy and investing in the technological and physical innovations poised to break through or bypass them.   We are witnessing a rapidly accelerating paradigm shift. Legacy systems — in energy distribution, financial settlement, and industrial supply chains — are increasingly hitting physical and operational limits. In this environment, a clear understanding of the macro trends reshaping our world is essential.  Positioning investment portfolios well for the evolution of these trends requires bridging the physical constraints of the material world with the programmable efficiency of the digital age.

We believe this trend convergence rests on five core pillars:

Physical Foundations

The transition to next-generation technologies — renewable energy infrastructure (particularly solar as we’ve highlighted in previous articles), data centers, and AI compute — demands an unprecedented volume of physical, raw materials and input. Over the past year, we have repeatedly highlighted growing supply-demand imbalances in critical minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium.  Equally important are the second-order effects. The global reagent squeeze, particularly sulfuric acid — a non-substitutable chemical required to process nearly all critical minerals — illustrates how concentrated and vulnerable certain supply chains remain. By identifying these chokepoints, investors can position capital in specialized manufacturers and infrastructure providers that serve as the essential “picks and shovels” for the broader critical minerals and automation boom. This approach reduces direct commodity volatility while capturing the structural opportunity.

Another stark example of physical vulnerability is the global agricultural supply chain. The 2026 conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a major disruption in the fertilizer market.  The Gulf Region accounts for 46% of global urea trade and at least 20% of seaborne fertilizer exports. Fertilizer production is also heavily dependent on liquefied natural gas. With shipping routes blocked during critical planting seasons, natural gas, fuel, and granular urea prices spiked dramatically. Farmers who had not secured inputs in advance faced sharply higher costs or reduced yields.  This episode underscores a key truth: global food security is inextricably linked to secure energy markets and reliable transit corridors. From an investment perspective, it reinforces the need to support domestic, vertically integrated agricultural producers and food supply chains that are insulated from distant geopolitical risks. We expect national champions in food security to emerge in the years ahead.

Monetary Anchors & AI Hardware

Even as the economy digitizes, the role of physical stores of value has intensified. Persistent inflation, rising sovereign debt, and geopolitical instability — including the recent disruptions in the Middle East — continue to drive demand for gold and silver.  A powerful new tailwind is emerging: precious metals are transitioning from pure monetary hedges into critical components of the AI hardware stack.

  • Silver possesses the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, making it indispensable for thermal interface materials, cooling systems, and high-conductivity interconnections in data centers and advanced GPUs.
  • Gold offers unmatched corrosion resistance and conductivity, essential for high-reliability wiring and plating in memory chips and AI servers.

As AI infrastructure scales, baseline industrial demand for both metals is rising structurally. Investors now gain a dual benefit from precious metals exposure: protection against monetary risk and direct participation in the buildout of both digital AI (cloud-based Large Language Models (LLMs)) and physical AI (robotics and autonomous systems).

Digital Base Layers

If gold is the analog anchor for savings, Bitcoin has established itself as the leading digital savings device and store of value. The era of skepticism that kept many traditional investors on the sidelines is ending.  Professional wealth managers who once restricted access — notably Vanguard and Merrill Lynch — have reversed course. In December 2025, Vanguard began allowing trading of third-party bitcoin and crypto ETFs on its platform. In January 2026, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch expanded access, enabling its financial advisors to proactively recommend specific spot Bitcoin ETFs with suggested portfolio allocations between 1% to 4% as suitable for clients.

Bitcoin has matured into a recognized institutional asset class. Operating on a decentralized, immutable, globally accessible ledger, it offers mathematically enforced scarcity and protection from discretionary monetary policy. With accelerating institutional adoption and anticipated regulatory clarity (including potential passage of the CLARITY Act this summer), Bitcoin is solidifying its position as a foundational layer of the future financial stack and a pristine collateral asset for the digital age.

Frictionless Settlement

While Bitcoin serves as the digital store of value, stablecoins are transforming the day-to-day transaction and settlement layer of global finance.  Traditional cross-border payments rely on slow correspondent banking, paper records, and high costs. Dollar-pegged stablecoins solve these frictions by bringing fiat currency onto blockchain rails, enabling near-instantaneous, borderless settlement.  Supported by landmark legislation such as the GENIUS Act and the anticipated CLARITY Act, stablecoins are not competing with the U.S. dollar — they are extending the dollar’s dominance into the digital realm. Anyone with an internet connection can now access dollar-denominated value and transact globally, 24/7, bypassing limiting factors imposed by legacy systems.

Capital Efficiency

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is the logical extension of moving money on-chain by also bringing the assets that are purchased with money on-chain. Tokenization of equities, bonds, private credit, real estate, and other traditional assets promises to unlock the next wave of capital efficiency.  Legacy markets suffer from multi-day settlement lags, fragmented liquidity, and high administrative overheads.

Tokenization delivers:

  • Instantaneous settlement and reduced counterparty risk
  • Automated compliance and distributions via smart contracts
  • Greater transparency and direct ownership
  • Access to previously illiquid assets for a global investor base

As platforms secure necessary regulatory approvals as transfer agents and broker-dealers, the tokenization of RWAs will merge the reliability of traditional assets with the speed and programmability of blockchain technology.

Bottom Line for Servant Financial Clients

Understanding these macro trends is only the beginning. Translating them into actionable portfolio themes for clients is what really matters in the long run.  We continue to position client portfolios with targeted exposure across the foregoing five pillars:

More recently, we took toehold positions only within our most risk tolerant client portfolios to Black Diamond Group Limited (BDIMF) as a play on near site or on-site housing solutions for large, skilled labor forces needed for data center, industrial production, refining, and manufacturing facilities construction, and the enabling energy infrastructure to power these facilities, and to Ecovyst, Inc. (NYSE: ECVT), a focused play on sulfuric acid and mining reagents.

  • Capital Efficiency: Securitize, Inc. through its pending Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) listing as Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc. (CEPT) has been identified as the premier, U.S. listed platform for the emerging tokenization of RWAs. We have not yet instituted a CEPT position in any client portfolios.

Several entrepreneurs have created vast economic value across America’s almost 250-year history by identifying and resolving the limiting factors that prevent the evolution from the current process state to a more optimal system design.  By anchoring portfolios at the intersection of physical scarcity and digital innovation, we believe we have positioned client portfolios well to navigate and capitalize on the inherent productivity gains that can be achieved from eliminating systemic bottlenecks and strategic dependencies.

 

IPOs Ready for Liftoff

Risk markets have been generally buoyant since the Federal Reserve paused its interest rate hiking cycle in 2023 and with the Fed continuing to signal a “pivot” to lower interest rates later this year.  Year-to-date through March 15, 2024, bitcoin is leading risk assets with a total return of 38.7%, followed by midstream energy at 11.4%, and the S&P 500 at 7.6%.

Optimism is rising that the U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market is “ready for liftoff” after a couple of years of significant declines in volumes and valuations.  According to Ernst & Young, there were 128 U.S. initial public offerings in 2023, with a listing value of $22.6 billion.  2023 was a nice uptick compared to 2022, yet well below the capital raised in the 2019 to 2021 period.

Ernst & Young experts believe the 2024 IPO market could return to historically “normal” levels.  Favorable indicators for their optimism are the significant backlog of IPO hopefuls and more favorable market conditions characterized by rising valuations, moderating volatility and inflationary pressures, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the not-too-distant future.

The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11th were the first new securities offerings off the 2024 IPO launch pad.  And what an amazing blastoff it has been.  Bitcoin held by these vehicles has grown some 226k to 836k bitcoin in the two months since launch.  The total assets in the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs have crossed above $60 billion, over $3 billion higher than the assets under management (AUM) in the largest Gold ETF (GLD) with $56.9 billion. Bitcoin is sometimes referred to as digital gold.

Further as the chart depicts below, BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) AUM at $25.3 billion and Fidelity’s Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) garnering $9.7 billion have been the fastest growing entrants in the bitcoin fund space.  The spot bitcoin ETF’s IPOs have been more widely successful than even the most optimistic expectations by garnering AUM expected over a full year in just two months.  Consider this, IBIT and FBTC rank 3rd and 4th in year-to-date inflows among all ETFs, standing tall on the podium against some of the biggest, more established ETFs in the world.

Source: https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf

 

In the 2024 IPO staging area is Reddit (RDDT), set to go public on March 21st.  RDDT and is one of the most highly anticipated IPOs of 2024. The social media company is seeking a $6.5 billion valuation and is aiming to raise up to $748 million through the sale of 22 million shares at an expected price of $32.50 per share.  Reuters commented on St. Patrick’s Day that Reddit’s IPO is currently between four and five times oversubscribed.

Reddit has been around since 2005 and is best known for hosting text-based discussions with expert influencers gaining popularity for their opinions and answers to audience questions. The Reddit business model is based on ad sales, as well as sponsored posts and promoted content, and premium features through subscriptions.  The Reddit platform hosts vast discussion forums called “subreddits,” focused on topics ranging from technology, music, food, etc.  Users are called “Redditors.” In fact, it is expected that approximately 1.8 million shares of newly issued stock in the IPO will be allocated for purchase to Redditors.

More recently Reddit has entered into licensing agreements with various Artificial Intelligence (AI) software providers to further monetize its proprietary content and data.  AI companies use databases, like Reddit’s, to train their models.  In its IPO registration statement with the SEC, Reddit disclosed, “In January 2024, we entered into certain data licensing arrangements with an aggregate contract value of $203.0 million and terms ranging from two to three years. We expect a minimum of $66.4 million of revenue to be recognized during the year ending December 31, 2024, and the remaining thereafter.”  The licensees were not disclosed, but there is broad speculation that one or both of Google and OpenAI could be customers.

According to Axios, Reddit received a letter of inquiry on Thursday, March 14th, from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).  Reddit said publicly that the FTC is “conducting a non-public inquiry focused on our sale, licensing, or sharing of user-generated content with third parties to train AI models.”  Of note, Reddit is not the only company receiving these so-called “hold letters,” according to a former FTC official who spoke with Axios.

We’re looking forward to seeing how the Reddit IPO launch performs later this week.  This could ignite the IPO market for 2024.

Ready for blastoff is Starlink, a subsidiary of Space X, Elon Musk’s sponsored aerospace company. Starlink provides satellite-based internet service around the globe. Space X uses spaceships with rocket grade kerosene and liquid oxygen in its recoverable and reusable Merlin engine system to place Starlink satellites into orbit.  The scale of Starlink’s satellite system is absolutely out of this world!  On March 15, 2024, Space X announced that it placed its 6,000th Starlink satellite into Earth orbit.  In addition, Starlink has “bravely gone where no internet service has gone before.”  Last year, Starlink introduced its broadband internet service to two of the most remote areas of the globe – Pitcairn Island and Easter Island – both thousands of miles from the nearest continent.

AG Dillon & Co managing director Aaron Dillon estimated Starlink’s possible valuation at $1.6 trillion based on the following key metrics:

  • Starlink has satellite internet monopoly,
  • 6 billion people (33% of global population) have no access to internet,
  • Starlink charges a monthly subscription fee of $50 to $110 per month,
  • And with an assumed 10% Starlink capture rate of internet-less humans, or 260 million subscribers, at $50/month is $156b in annual recurring revenue,
  • Aaron uses an aggressive 10x revenue multiple to derive his $1.6 trillion valuation.

With the Reddit IPO in the staging area, Elon could be possibly waiting in the wings to see how this IPO performs before proceeding with Starlink.  There is little dispute about Starlink’s success in launching satellites, nor Elon’s success in launching IPOs. Talk about a match made in heaven.

So long as markets remain receptive to risk-taking, we believe it’s not a question of if, but when the Starlink IPO will come to market in 2024.  In that light, we’re preparing for an Apollo 11-type countdown:

“Twenty seconds and counting. T minus 15 seconds, guidance is internal. Twelve, 11, 10, 9, ignition sequence starts… 8, 7, 6, 5, 4… 3… 2… 1, zero, all engine running… LIFT-OFF! We have a lift-off, 32 minutes past the hour. Lift-off on Apollo 11.”

 

 

 

 

white-arrow